Newmark Zimmer’s St. Louis market reports provide a comprehensive overview of current real estate conditions by sector and submarket. Newmark Zimmer is constantly monitoring market indicators, tracking and analyzing supply and demand drivers, cyclical patterns and industry trends. The following quarterly research data examines the multifaceted St. Louis commercial real estate market.
Industrial net absorption in the third quarter of 2025 totaled negative 193,343 SF, reducing the past four-quarter total to 760,670 SF. This marks the reversal of four consecutive quarters of positive absorption from 2Q24 to 1Q25, as tenants capitalized on favorable conditions. The construction pipeline currently stands at 4.4 MSF, with 94% consisting of build-to-suit (BTS) projects. Speculative construction is expected to remain limited in 2025. Vacancy climbed 20 basis points to 4.8% in 3Q25 and year over year, a decent result compared to other U.S. industrial markets which experienced 50+ bps increases during the same period. The stability in vacancy since 1Q23 supports rental rate growth fundamentals and is spurring developers to explore select development options.
The office market loosened during the quarter with negative 392,241 SF of net absorption, bringing the four-quarter total to negative 65,588 SF. This marks six out of the past twelve quarters with positive absorption, as tenants continue to reassess market conditions. The West County and Clayton submarkets registered 237,894 SF and 200,984 SF of net absorption, respectively, over the past year. The non-owner-occupied construction pipeline has remained inactive since the third quarter of 2022, with just 69,000 SF currently under construction. Vacancy increased 50 basis points to 13.9% during the quarter but is expected to remain stable in 2026 as the market recalibrates. Year-over-year, asking rental rates dropped 3.3% to $22.28/SF.
The St. Louis retail market faced headwinds in the third quarter of 2025 as consumer sentiment continued to drop significantly. Net absorption turned negative as tariff-driven uncertainty continues to affect leasing activity, particularly in discretionary retail categories. Regional tenants have become more cautious, lengthening deal timelines and demanding additional landlord concessions. Retail landlords in St. Louis are navigating a more restrained climate. Construction and operating costs continue to climb, and tenants are requesting shorter lease terms or increased flexibility to manage potential slowdowns.
Investment activity in the St. Louis market remained steady during the past four quarters, with sales volume totaling $1.9 billion. As a leading second-tier market, the St. Louis Metropolitan area ranked seventh out of the largest 13 Midwest markets in total sales volume during the past 12 months, with multifamily and industrial assets combining for 72.3% of the Metro’s activity. Capitalization rates increased by 25 basis points compared with the past 12 months, registering 7.5% in the third quarter of 2025. Net absorption across the industrial, office, and retail sectors totaled 1.3 million SF over the past four quarters, a decrease of 66.9% compared with the preceding year.
For a more detailed view of the industrial, office, retail and investment commercial real estate markets, please visit the research section of Newmark Zimmer’s website. Additionally, national reports and market insights are available online through Newmark.
